How Many Registered Republicans Are There And How Many Democrats

Story Highlights

Preferences shifted from nine-point Democratic reward to five-point GOP border
Boilerplate party preferences for all of 2021 like to past years
Largest percentage of U.S. adults identify as political independents

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- On average, Americans' political political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).

However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the form of 2021, from a nine-per centum-point Autonomous advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the 4th quarter.

These results are based on aggregated data from all U.S. Gallup telephone surveys in 2021, which included interviews with more than 12,000 randomly sampled U.S. adults.

Gallup asks all Americans information technology interviews whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Independents are then asked whether they lean more than toward the Republican or Autonomous Party. The combined percentage of party identifiers and leaners gives a measure of the relative strength of the two parties politically.

Both the nine-point Autonomous advantage in the offset quarter and the five-signal Republican edge in the fourth quarter are among the largest Gallup has measured for each political party in whatever quarter since it began regularly measuring political party identification and leaning in 1991.

The Democratic lead in the first quarter was the largest for the party since the quaternary quarter of 2012, when Democrats also had a nine-signal reward. Democrats held larger, double-digit advantages in isolated quarters between 1992 and 1999 and most continuously between mid-2006 and early 2009.
The GOP has held equally much as a five-point advantage in a total of only 4 quarters since 1991. The Republicans final held a five-point advantage in political party identification and leaning in early 1995, later on winning control of the House of Representatives for the offset fourth dimension since the 1950s. Republicans had a larger advantage only in the start quarter of 1991, afterward the U.South. victory in the Persian Gulf State of war led by then-President George H.W. Bush.

Party Preference Shifts Follow Changes in Presidential Approval

Shifting party preferences in 2021 are likely tied to changes in popularity of the two men who served as president during the year. Republican Donald Trump finished out his single term in January, later on being defeated in the 2020 ballot, with a 34% job approving rating, the lowest of his term. His popularity fell more than x points from Election Twenty-four hour period 2020 as the country'south COVID-19 infections and deaths reached then-tape highs, he refused to acknowledge the event of the ballot, and his supporters rioted at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an endeavor to prevent Congress from counting the 2020 Electoral College votes.

Democrat Joe Biden enjoyed relatively loftier ratings afterwards taking office on Jan. 20, and his approval stayed high through the early summer as COVID-nineteen infections dramatically decreased after millions of Americans got vaccinated against the illness. A summer surge of infections tied to the delta variant of the coronavirus made information technology articulate the pandemic was not over in the U.S., and Biden's approval ratings began to sag. Later, the cluttered U.Southward. withdrawal from Afghanistan caused Biden's ratings to fall further, into the low 40s. His ratings remain low every bit the U.S. battles rising aggrandizement and yet another surge of COVID-19 infections, tied to the omicron variant of the virus.

With Trump's blessing rating at a low point and Biden relatively popular in the showtime quarter, 49% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, compared with twoscore% who were Republicans or Republican leaners.

In the 2nd quarter, Democratic affiliation stayed high, while Republican affiliation began to recover, increasing to 43%.

The third quarter saw a reject in Democratic identification and leaning, from 49% to 45%, as Biden'southward ratings began to falter, while there was no meaningful change in Republican affiliation.

In the fourth quarter, party support flipped as Republicans made gains, from 44% to 47%, and Autonomous affiliation fell from 45% to 42%. These 4th-quarter shifts coincided with stiff GOP performances in 2021 elections, including a Republican victory in the Virginia gubernatorial election and a near-upset of the Democratic incumbent governor in New Jersey. Biden won both states by double digits in the 2020 election.

The GOP reward may be starting to ease, nevertheless, as Gallup'south latest monthly estimate, from December, showed the two parties most even -- 46% Republican/Republican leaning and 44% Autonomous/Autonomous leaning.

2021 Shifts Occurred Amongst Both Core Political party Identifiers and Less Attached Leaners

The shifts in party affiliation in each quarter of 2021 were apparent in both the percentage identifying with each political party and the percentage of independents leaning to each party, merely with more changes among leaners than identifiers.

Between the get-go and 4th quarters, the percent of Democratic identifiers decreased by two points, while the percentage of Democratic-leaning independents dropped 5 points. Republican identification increased by 3 points from the beginning to the stop of 2021, while Republican leaners increased by 4 points.

Changes in Party Identification and Leaning, by Quarter, 2021

In politics, equally of today, do you consider yourself -- [a Republican, a Democrat] -- or an independent? // Equally of today, do you lean more to the -- [Autonomous Party or the Republican Party]?

	2021-I	2021-Ii	2021-III	2021-Four
	%	%	%	%
Democrat	30	31	28	28
Democratic-leaning independent	19	18	17	14
Non-leaning contained	x	5	eight	9
Republican-leaning contained	fifteen	17	16	19
Republican	25	26	28	28
Pct with no opinion not shown
Gallup

Democrats Usually Hold an Advantage, and Did So in 2021

When all the 2021 shifts are netted out, the Democrats' average three-betoken reward for the entirety of the year is only slightly smaller than they had in recent years. Democrats held v- or six-point advantages in party affiliation each yr between 2016 and 2020, and three-signal edges in 2014 and 2015.

Gallup began regularly measuring party leaning in 1991, and in most years, significantly more than Americans take identified as Democrats or as independents who lean Democratic than as Republicans or Republican leaners. The major exception was 1991, when Republicans held a 48% to 44% advantage in party identification and leaning. From 2001 through 2003 and in 2010 and 2011, the parties had roughly equal levels of support.

Independents Are Nonetheless the Largest Political Group in the U.S.

Regardless of which party has an advantage in party affiliation, over the past iii decades, presidential elections have generally been competitive, and party command of the U.Southward. House of Representatives and Senate has changed hands numerous times. This is partly considering neither party can claim a very loftier share of core supporters -- those who place with the political party -- as the largest proportion of Americans place initially as political independents.

Overall in 2021, an average of 29% of Americans identified as Democrats, 27% as Republicans and 42% as independents. Roughly equal proportions of independents leaned to the Democratic Political party (17%) and to the Republican Political party (16%).

The percent of independent identifiers is up from 39% in 2020, but similar to the 41% measured in 2019. Gallup has ofttimes seen a decrease in independents in a presidential ballot twelvemonth and an increase in the year afterwards.

The broader trend toward an increasing share of political independents has been clear over the past decade, with more than Americans viewing themselves every bit independents than did so in the late 1980s through 2000s. At least four in ten Americans have considered themselves independents in all years since 2011, except for the 2016 and 2020 presidential election years. Before 2011, independent identification had never reached 40%.

Bottom Line

The yr 2021 was an eventful one in politics, after a similarly eventful 2020 that also saw major shifts in party preferences. In early 2021, Autonomous force reached levels not seen in nearly a decade. Past the third quarter, those Autonomous gains evaporated as Biden'southward job approval declined. The political winds continued to become more favorable to Republicans in the fourth quarter, giving the GOP an advantage over Democrats larger than whatever they had achieved in more than 25 years.

The final monthly survey of 2021 showed the parties at roughly even strength, although that still represents a departure from the historical norm of the Autonomous Political party's having at to the lowest degree a slight advantage in party affiliation.

With command of the House of Representatives and Senate at pale in this year's midterm elections, party preferences will exist a key indicator of which political party will be meliorate positioned to gain majorities in the adjacent session of Congress.

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